{"id":393,"date":"2022-10-10T17:15:24","date_gmt":"2022-10-10T22:15:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/manlife.com\/articles\/?p=393"},"modified":"2022-10-10T17:15:24","modified_gmt":"2022-10-10T22:15:24","slug":"october-7-update-on-the-russia-ukraine-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/manlife.com\/articles\/index.php\/2022\/10\/10\/october-7-update-on-the-russia-ukraine-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"October 7 Update on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The war between Russia and Ukraine has now been ongoing for several months. With that in mind, daily news reports can offer conflicting, sometimes incorrect information. Here, I want to take a moment to address some of the more complex facets of the conflict and offer you my perspectives on them.

For a little bit of surety on your end: I have a Ph.D. in political science, and one of my specializations is security studies. That is to say, I read, write, teach, and publish on these issues as an active scholar. Thus, I’ll try to be as clear as I can here, and my only goal is to help you get quality information so that you can draw your own conclusions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Russian Annexation of Eastern Ukraine<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Just a few days ago, Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, announced the annexation of what is essentially the Eastern third of Ukraine. This announcement was held after Putin had signed an “agreement” with the regions following several “referenda” in which all of them decided to become part of the Russian Federation.
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I use the above quotes to indicate that, frankly, those agreements are fiction, because the supposed referenda were conducted under armed threat by Russian forces. They were a sham, to say the very least.

Why would Russia bother to do this, especially when it is exceedingly clear to outside observers that such an election would likely be considered fraudulent?

I can think of two reasons. The first is that Russia is attempting to make itself out to be the victim of foreign aggression when, as they already have, Ukrainian forces begin retaking parts of the annexed regions. Second, I suspect it is an internal propaganda move: Putin can claim a victory at home to drive recruitment and conscription efforts. After all, there is about 1,000km of new Russian border to protect if you believe the Kremlin on the matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

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Casualties On the Ground<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As of the most recent numbers I can find, the Russian government reports that around 61,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. The Ukrainian government reports that 61,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. The same reports that it might be possible that 29,000 civilians have died.

Can we believe these numbers? I am skeptical of all of them. First and foremost, both sides have a vested interest in lying to the world. Russia would likely under-report its casualties, but this does not jive well with the apparent nationwide conscription efforts that are not, quite literally, kidnapping men off the streets of Russian cities and villages to send them to the front lines.

Similarly, Ukraine is likely to under-report as well, since doing so might make their situation seem rosier than it is and keep international aid flowing. If the number is over-reported, it may engender sympathy on the international level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Simply put, I would not believe any casualty reports that come from belligerents in a conflict, and before I am willing to take a stand on the validity of any such numbers, I would like them to be verified by the United Nations or several independent journalistic agencies. What is clear, however, is that this has become a war of attrition rather than the swift campaign that Russia had hoped for six months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Will Putin Deploy Tactical Nuclear Weapons?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Over the last week, Putin has apparently began threatening the use of smaller, so-called tactical nuclear weapons to defend his newly, and obviously falsely, annexed territory. This has, understandably, caused more than a fair bit of speculation that has reached the level of outright panic in some circles.

I think that the use of tactical nuclear weapons is exceedingly unlikely for two reasons.

First is that Russia is not a totalitarian state with a single leader who has a cult of personality that allows him to do as he pleases. Putin has a lot of the power in Russia to be sure, but the country, practically, is run by several dozen oligarchs who control various industries and number among the wealthiest individuals on the planet.

Already, the war with Ukraine has meant worse sanctions than Russia has faced since it was the Soviet Union, and, perhaps worse for the oligarchs, more international focus on their financial dealings than ever before. If for no other reason than the oligarchs want to resume their normal lives of making billions of dollars, they would not likely allow Putin to make the decision to use a tactical nuclear weapon since it would, at the very least, make Russia a pariah on a global scale.

Secondly, despite all of the rhetoric, ideology, and nastiness going on between nations within the context of the conflict, I still think that Russia behaves somewhat rationally in regard to its own survival. As we have seen, Russian military capabilities are severely limited and they seem, if anything, to be losing ground to a much smaller country.

If Russia were to use a nuclear weapon of any size, this would more or less envoke the very reason for NATO’s creation, and then it is likely that, at the very least, the full might of the German, French, Czech, Belgian, and a dozen other airforces would be brought to bear against the already weakened Russian forces. This would result in not only a loss of the annexed territories but likely the war as a whole and possibly a violent end to the Putin Regime. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nothing that I have said here is groundbreaking, nor does it require a crystal ball: it is my estimation that Russia is fully aware that they are caught in a corner, and much of its current rhetoric is a hollow attempt to drum up national pride at home to spur faltering recruitment numbers.

They hope, as far as I can tell, that Ukraine will tire of the attrition before Russia does. Though I do not see that as a likely outcome, I do think it means that this war will not end by nuclear means. What remains to be seen, though, is whether or not Russia can be considered a rational actor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The war between Russia and Ukraine has now been ongoing for several months. With that in mind, daily news reports can offer conflicting, sometimes incorrect information. Here, I want to take a moment to address some of the more complex facets of the conflict and offer you my perspectives on them. For a little bit … <\/p>\n

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