{"id":451,"date":"2022-11-29T15:05:55","date_gmt":"2022-11-29T21:05:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/manlife.com\/articles\/?p=451"},"modified":"2022-11-29T15:05:55","modified_gmt":"2022-11-29T21:05:55","slug":"did-russia-strike-poland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/manlife.com\/articles\/index.php\/2022\/11\/29\/did-russia-strike-poland\/","title":{"rendered":"Did Russia Strike Poland?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On Nov 16, 2022, a missile hit a Polish village and killed two farmers. The killing of any noncombatants in a war is a tragedy: the killing of two civilians in a country that has not yet entered the conflict has the potential of dragging the previously neutral party into the conflict. Regardless of whether the Ukrainians or Russians first fired the missile, the event has the potential to worsen an already dire set of circumstances.

Here, I want to walk you through what happened. From there, I’ll give my thoughts on the immediate and long-term consequences of this incident, as well as some cautionary ideas about how NATO may play a role here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Summary of Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As I mentioned above, a missile struck a small farming village in Poland on Nov 16, which killed two farmers. Given that both Ukraine and Russia have large, relatively modern militaries, either country could have fired the missile.

As of now, Russia has vehemently denied firing the missile, and has expressed a desire to respect Polish neutrality in the conflict: the two countries have had a cool relationship, if not a friendly one, since the breakup of the Soviet Union three decades ago.

Ukraine has similarly denied firing the missile, citing that doing so would make no sense, as Poland is actively facilitating arms flows into Ukraine.

Of course, one of those two is lying to us. In international relations, the actual events that occurred do matter, of course. But, what might matter more is whose perception of events is the one that the world at large comes to accept. So, I will reserve my judgment on what happened until the end, and, instead, present what might happen next if the Russians could have potentially launched the missile, in terms of short and medium term consequences with NATO already on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Immediate Consequences<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since it has been more than a week since the missile strike, we can, I think, safely rule out this incident spiraling into a general war between NATO and Russian forces. This is excellent news, since such a conflict might well involve nuclear weapons.

What has happened, however, is that the international community, which has already been tired of this conflict for some time, is even more wary of it. A general war between two European countries is bad enough. In fact, it is horrifying. Having that conflict spill over into neighboring countries poses general risk to the political and economic stability of the region, and, in particular, Poland. The Poles want nothing to do with a general ground war on their territory.

This general wariness, I think, might have nation-states on a global level less willing to talk to Russia about much of anything. Whether it’s organizing sports events, trade, or making alliances, dealing with a country that is a constant source of conflict is a drain. There are other examples of this, albeit more extreme. North Korea, for example, has long since tired the international system with its threats of nuclear war, and that’s one of the many reasons only their immediate neighbors ever bother much with the DPRK. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Medium-Term Consequences<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sadly, I think that the first consequence of this is a lengthening of the Ukraine-Russia conflict as a whole. While the Russian military seems to be weakening by the day- there have been sightings of men with rifles old enough to have been issued first by a Tsar- the fact that both belligerents seem ready, willing, and able to batter one another with missiles tells me that there is no immediate end in sight.

When the conflict does begin to drawn down, incidents like this one add distrust to any talks. For example, the Ukrainians have signaled that they are only willing to talk with Russia about an end to the war if those discussions are public. The want for transparency is understandable in light of all of what has happened, but it is also asking Russia to publicly admit a lot of fault. That will be even more difficult with both parties pointing fingers at each other over who launched the missile.

Sadly, the easiest to predict outcome of all of this is the continuance of the suffering of average people who are not unlike you and I. Two farmers who were going about their chores were killed, and they had not one thing to do with the conflict. Such events will continue to happen until the war ends, and likely a fair bit after considering how much un-exploded ordinance is likely to be left in the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

NATO INvolvement? <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Poland is a member of NATO, which means that all of the other NATO members, including the United States, have agreed to intervene if Russia attacks Poland. Luckily, this has not happened yet, but the possibility of a Russian strike into Poland opens the door to the scale of conventional conflict that we have not seen since the end of the Second World War. Luckily, NATO has not yet openly intervened, though most NATO members are donating arms to Ukraine.

I think this is for two key reasons. First, I suspect that the strike was an accident on behalf of Ukraine. This makes it a tragedy on a small scale, but not something that would cause a more general war. Sadly, collateral damage happens in conflicts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Secondly, even if the missile was Russian, Russia would have immediately apologized to Poland and offered some reparations. Current Russian conventional forces are losing, in no uncertain terms, to Ukrainian military and paramilitary forces. If Poland were to get involved, let alone Germany or other NATO allies, the entire conventional Russian military would likely be ground to fine powder within a few weeks.

All-in-all, I think this incident was an accidental one, but these kinds of accidents or small-scale events can lead to much larger effects. This is yet another lesson in the horrors of war and why it should be generally avoided.

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On Nov 16, 2022, a missile hit a Polish village and killed two farmers. The killing of any noncombatants in a war is a tragedy: the killing of two civilians in a country that has not yet entered the conflict has the potential of dragging the previously neutral party into the conflict. Regardless of whether … <\/p>\n

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