What's Next?
As far as what will happen in Cuba, I truly do not know. Neither do any of the scholars in international relations, political science, or related fields to whom I have spoken in recent weeks.
Will the US intervene? In my analysis, probably not. After twenty years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the American people have little appetite for foreign wars and even less for trying to change a regime by force.
If anything, I would expect the UN to make some attempt to intervene, possibly with peacekeepers, to restore something like peace to Cuba. Whether or not Russia or China, both of whom are on the Security Council, will be okay with that, is another question entirely. What I do know, is that the future of Cuba will be a complicated one and there will be a lot of tense moments in the coming days, weeks, and months.
Will the US intervene? In my analysis, probably not. After twenty years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the American people have little appetite for foreign wars and even less for trying to change a regime by force.
If anything, I would expect the UN to make some attempt to intervene, possibly with peacekeepers, to restore something like peace to Cuba. Whether or not Russia or China, both of whom are on the Security Council, will be okay with that, is another question entirely. What I do know, is that the future of Cuba will be a complicated one and there will be a lot of tense moments in the coming days, weeks, and months.