The Current Situation
With a simmering civil war going on in a NATO-allied country, Biden and Putin met recently to discuss the situation and try to come to a solution.
No such solution was found: the United States has promised to protect Ukraine against Russian aggression, and Russia has promised to defend Ukrainian sovereignty against the expansion of NATO and the EU. It seems intractable, and exactly the kind of setup that could lead to armed conflict that involves one, or both, of the major superpowers at play. I think three scenarios as possible, and I’ll list them in the order of least to most likely in my analyses.
First, the conflict could continue to escalate between the US and Russia in an open, armed conflict. This would mean engagements between American and Russian forces in Ukraine. At the worst, this could devolve into limited, and then complete, nuclear war. This, in my mind, is highly unlikely. Ask yourself: is the US willing to lose New York for Ukraine? Conversely, is Russia willing to lose Moscow for Ukraine? The clear answer, in both cases, is a no: thus, I do not think either nation is willing to enter direct conflict with the other over Ukraine at this time.
Second, either, or both, the US and Russia could continue, and increase, support for one of the several factions in Ukraine. Russia is currently doing this and supporting them with both troops and equipment, and the United States appears to be posturing towards doing the same. The result in this would likely be a long proxy war on behalf of the Russians, or, less likely, the Americans. Recall that both the US and Russia have, in the last half-century, had failed, long-lasting proxy wars (both in Afghanistan!). Neither country’s domestic political scene would tolerate another war of that sort with the current state of global affairs.
Finally, Russia could choose to act more unilaterally, as they have done before in Georgia in the recent past, invading with Russian forces proper to establish a foothold, effectively daring NATO to risk nuclear war to stop them. Given Putin’s relative stability as the effective dictator of Russia, I think this is one outcome that is more likely than the rest since it would mirror other Russian actions in the last several decades.
It’s my hope that none of these happen and the situation simmers down over time, but, sadly, I do not think that is a likely outcome in Ukraine given its history and geography.
No such solution was found: the United States has promised to protect Ukraine against Russian aggression, and Russia has promised to defend Ukrainian sovereignty against the expansion of NATO and the EU. It seems intractable, and exactly the kind of setup that could lead to armed conflict that involves one, or both, of the major superpowers at play. I think three scenarios as possible, and I’ll list them in the order of least to most likely in my analyses.
First, the conflict could continue to escalate between the US and Russia in an open, armed conflict. This would mean engagements between American and Russian forces in Ukraine. At the worst, this could devolve into limited, and then complete, nuclear war. This, in my mind, is highly unlikely. Ask yourself: is the US willing to lose New York for Ukraine? Conversely, is Russia willing to lose Moscow for Ukraine? The clear answer, in both cases, is a no: thus, I do not think either nation is willing to enter direct conflict with the other over Ukraine at this time.
Second, either, or both, the US and Russia could continue, and increase, support for one of the several factions in Ukraine. Russia is currently doing this and supporting them with both troops and equipment, and the United States appears to be posturing towards doing the same. The result in this would likely be a long proxy war on behalf of the Russians, or, less likely, the Americans. Recall that both the US and Russia have, in the last half-century, had failed, long-lasting proxy wars (both in Afghanistan!). Neither country’s domestic political scene would tolerate another war of that sort with the current state of global affairs.
Finally, Russia could choose to act more unilaterally, as they have done before in Georgia in the recent past, invading with Russian forces proper to establish a foothold, effectively daring NATO to risk nuclear war to stop them. Given Putin’s relative stability as the effective dictator of Russia, I think this is one outcome that is more likely than the rest since it would mirror other Russian actions in the last several decades.
It’s my hope that none of these happen and the situation simmers down over time, but, sadly, I do not think that is a likely outcome in Ukraine given its history and geography.